Environmental Indicators for Agricultural Policy Assessment

Abstract

This article evaluated the suitability of agricultural productivity indicators adopted in Brazil’s Multi-Year Plan (PPA) 2024–2027, with emphasis on the ratio between total factor productivity (TFP) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Using secondary data for 2012–2024, we apply the Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index with a Directional Distance Function (DDF), which explicitly incorporates undesirable outputs. The results show that the simplified TFP/GHG metric, while intuitive, does not capture shifts in the technological frontier nor the regional and sectoral differences in environmental efficiency. The GML index provides a more robust measure by jointly integrating inputs, production, and negative externalities. We conclude that productivity indicators grounded in production-theory models are more appropriate for guiding public policies, monitoring sustainability, and enabling consistent international comparisons. We recommend strengthening institutional data integration and statistical governance to improve the consistency and timeliness of indicators used in the federal planning cycle.