Monthly corn supply and demand in Brazil: effects of second crop

Abstract

This paper estimates the monthly corn supply in Brazil in terms of harvesting pace (first and second crops) and demand (domestic consumption and exportation) in the period between February 2001 and January 2018. The Brazilian corn market went through important structural changes in the first two decades of the twenty-first century, with higher supply in the second crop and growing exportations. This paper aims to identify and analyze the changes in the monthly corn supply in the Brazilian market. Results indicate that the increase in the second crop corn moved the months with higher inventories in Brazil to the third quarter of the year (July, August and September). Exportations are the highest in the following months (October, November and December), contributing for the fast supply decrease in the domestic market – availability in Brazil is the lowest in the first quarter of the year (January, February and March).