Desempenho da política de garantia de preços via contratos de opção de venda e prêmios para escoamento de produto

Abstract

The variability of the prices imposes difficulties in the planning of the production and in the provisioning of the market, besides carting accentuated allocation impacts and of distribution. This research has the objective of evaluating the effectiveness of the Contracts of Option of Sale (COV) and of the Prizes of Drainage of Product (PEP) to do reference and to stabilize the prices in the markets of rice, cotton, corn and wheat. It is made analysis of the coefficients of variation of the components of the agricultural income besides the decomposition of the variance of the income in order to identify the most important source of instability of the agricultural income of these products. The results indicate fall of the instability of the income in the markets analyzed in the period 1995-2005 in consequence, above all, of the decrease of the variability of prices. The change of the agricultural politics seeking to smallest retention of stocks for the government, besides the incentive to the private financing of the stockpiling, through COS and PEP, it has been promoting larger stability in the agricultural commercialization in the analyzed agricultural markets. In the case of the corn, the offer oscillations intern reduced the effectiveness of the instruments as for the sustentation of the prices. The exchange changes in 1999 ended for presenting negative impacts about the stability of the agricultural income, more than compensating the effect stabilizer of the price politics.