Estudo de viabilidade econômica e risco para sistemas de bovinocultura de leite em Piracanjuba, GO

Abstract

This study analyzed three milk production systems, under deterministic and risk conditions, in Piracanjuba, Goiás. These systems were adapted from the Conseleite-Paraná Project, with the support the Agricultural Cooperative (COAPIL) experts in milk production. These systems were designed to reflect Piracanjuba‘s production and market conditions, assuming three production and technological levels: low, average and relatively high. The maim objective was to evaluate the profitability of these systems under risk. Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return were used as profitability indicators. A 6% discount rate was used as the opportunity cost of capital, and 15 year as the project life. Risk analyses were undertaken using Monte Carlo Simulation Method.Animal feeding, labor cost and milk sale price and several other variables were used as random variables in the simulation model. The main results were: a) under deterministic assumptions only system number 1 shows negative net income. Systems number 2 and 3 presented positive net income. Under risk conditions, all three systems show positive results, but system one presents relatively high risk (33% of the simulations show negative economic results).