Productivity gains and agricultural expansion in Minas Gerais, Brazil (2002–2024)

Abstract

This study examines the dynamics of grain production in Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2002 to 2024, focusing on the relative contributions of harvested area, physical productivity, and structural changes in crop composition. We apply the additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to IBGE’s PAM data for ten major crops, incorporating statistical inference through block bootstrap techniques. The results reveal pronounced temporal heterogeneity and identify two distinct phases. Between 2002 and 2017, production growth followed an intensive pattern, largely driven by productivity gains that were statistically robust over most of the period. From 2018 onward, an inflection is observed, with production growth increasingly explained by the expansion of harvested area, indicating a recent structural shift. The structural effect proved volatile and generally statistically insignificant, playing a complementary role linked to episodic reallocations across crops. Soybeans emerged as the main growth driver, while maize and coffee displayed contrasting trajectories in productivity and relative participation. Overall, the findings advance the understanding of regional agricultural dynamics and provide relevant insights for policies aimed at technological innovation, efficient land use, and territorial planning.