Meat geopolitics: production and consumption changes

Abstract

Remarkable changes occurred in the global meat consumption pattern due to economic and cultural changes. It raises questions about Brazil’s sustainable growth in the world market since Brazil is one of the largest beef, pork and poultry exporters. In order to guide producers’ and policy decisions we aim to address main factors regarding worldwide changes in geopolitics and markets. Who will be the main producers and consumers? Will substitute products raise its share? We begin with a brief contextualization of Post-Cold War geopolitics and trends in meat consumption including the so-called ‘vegetable meat’. Then, for ten years we consider the evolution and future prospects for the international market. Based on trends and market analysis main challenges for Brazil for keeping as possibly increase its worldwide market share are discussed. There is likely to be a strong change semin the geography of meat production during the next decade, as well as there will be concentration in the Americas. Based on data analysis from three decades discussed in this paper (2009, 2019 and projections 2029) and some present signals we conclude that two major producers, China and the EU are expected to decrease its market shares mainly due to environmental and health issues. Among meat, we should expect poultry the greatest production growth, followed by pork and beef. These changes may indicate that geopolitical issues influence agricultural production decisions.