Economic viability analysis of winter corn in the State Of Paraná, Brazil

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the economic viability of corn production in the off-season in the state of Paraná, comparing the results when considering only the effective operating costs (COE) and when using the total production costs (CTP). Therefore, a stochastic economic analysis was carried out in three different simulated scenarios, using the Monte Carlo simulation method. As input variables in the simulations, COE, CTP, productivity and sales price of corn in the state were chosen. For all input variables, the values of the last ten harvests in the state, from 2011/12 to 2020/21, were used. As a system exit indicator, operating profit was used for each production cost. The results show a significant difference in the final value of the expected operating profit due to the choice of COE and CTP as the base cost, and when using the CTP cost, the viability of off-season corn becomes small, with R$ 88.92/ha at a 90% risk level of probability of losses. Considering only costs directly related to production, the activity is recommended to producers with a moderate to high risk acceptance profile, with positive results from 50% of risk level and a profit of R$ 276, 63/ha. Therefore, the off-season corn in the state of Paraná proved to be a profitable activity in both production costs, but it is indicated to producers with a profile more acceptable to greater risks of losses.