Chicken meat exports

Abstract

The chicken meat production chain is one of the most important in the agribusiness in the state of Paraná. The state emerges on the national scene as an important producer and exporter of this product. In this context, this study aims to build an empirical model capable of identifying the existence of the economic interrelationship between chicken meat exports from Paraná, the corn price, the exchange rate and world imports. The period from 2002 to 2015 is considered to capture the movements of poultry production in the state of Paraná and its more accentuated expansion both in terms of production and exports after 2006. After performing the initial analysis of time series, it was found that the variables were co-integrated and, therefore, the error correction vector (VEC) model was estimated. The results achieved indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables. In addition, there was a positive impact on chicken meat exports after an unexpected shock in the real exchange rate and worldwide imports. Regarding the price of corn, it was found that a hock in this variable has a negative impact on chicken meat exports. Two dummies variables were used in the model to capture the effects of the 2008 global crisis and the effects of the global economic slowdown and the Brazilian economy’s recession in 2015. Through the short-term estimate of the VEC model, it was found that the two crises had a positive impact on chicken meat exports.