Change in the pattern of behavior of corn prices in the state of Paraná from 2001 to 2019

Abstract

The restructuring that took place in the corn producer market in Paraná, transferring the harvest season from the first to the second harvest, aroused interest in verifying the occurrence of possible changes in the pattern of behavior of the product`s prices. In this sense, this work aimed to analyze and compare the pattern of ehavior of prices received by producers in the state of Paraná, in two periods: July 2001 to June 2010 and July 2010 to June 2019. To that end, it was used the method of centralized moving geometric mean of 12 months. The results showed that the product has a moderate variation in prices, since the seasonal indexes are not very far from the average. The analysis of variance suggests that the seasonal variations in the price received by producers were not significant for the pattern of price behavior in the two periods considered. However, there was a greater amplitude of seasonal indexes in the second period and that, with the greater weight of the second harvest in the product`s supply, the seasonal indexes are now basically influenced by this second harvest.