Risk analysis of irrigated fruit farming in the Northeast Region of Cariri, Ceará

Abstract

This study is relevant considering that the fruit growing sector in the State of Ceará and particularly in the Cariri region has great importance in the agricultural production and generation of income in the State. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of economic return on irrigated fruit production in the micro region of Cariri, Ceará, Brazil, in the period of 2013. The data of the research are of primary nature, collected through questionnaires. The sample used was 66 farmers. Economic analysis of the deterministic and risk conditions obtained through the Monte Carlo method was used as analysis technique. The main results showed that producers present low probability of staying in the activity in the long run, that is, the net margin, profit, profitability and return on capital rate presented odds below 50 %. In the analysis by groups, small producers and especially medium and large producers showed favorable results in the short and long terms.