Causality between credit, prices and agricultural production

Abstract

The relationship between commodity prices and macroeconomic variables has been the subject of many studies, but there was no studies linking commodity prices, rural credit and agricultural production. In this sense, the main objective was to investigate the precedence relation between rural credit, commodity prices and the production of soybeans and corn in the period 2006-2014. Proposal discussed from the application of the non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto. The results indicated a consistent and unidirectional relationship of the price index for the granting of credit relationship that allows us to conclude that the price index of behavior influenced the amount of credit in the period analyzed, thereby constituting an important basis for the agricultural lending policies. In addition, it was found evidence of temporal precedence in the credit to the production of soybeans and soybean producer prices index.