Analysis of the value of the production and the composition of the brazilian market of graisn

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the value of the production and the cultivated area with grains in Brazil in the period of 1967 the 2007. The methodology use the shift-share model and is divided in two stages: at a first moment had been analyzed the components of the total variation of the value of the production – area, income and price effects; in the second stage an analysis of decomposition of the variation in the area is made, in the effect scale and substitution. The results point that the source of growth of the agricultural product in the market of grains is the area effect. Moreover, we can conclude that the agricultural composition modifies through the expansion of the cultures of exportation in detriment of the domestic ones.